30 June 2008

No Windows XP sales from today

REDMOND: Microsoft Corp is scheduled to stop selling its Windows XP operating system to retailers and major computer makers today, despite protests from a slice of PC users who don't want to be forced into using XP's successor, Vista.

Once computers loaded with XP have been cleared from the inventory of PC makers such as Dell Inc and Hewlett-Packard Co, consumers who can't live without the old operating system on their new machine will have to buy Vista Ultimate or Vista Business and then legally "downgrade" to XP.

Microsoft will still allow smaller mom-and-pop PC builder shops to buy XP for resale through the end of January. A version of XP will also remain available for ultra-low-cost PCs such as the Asus Eee PC.

A group of vocal computer users who rallied around a "Save XP" petition posted on the industry news site InfoWorld had been clamoring for Microsoft to keep selling XP until its next operating system, Windows 7, is available. The software maker has said it expects to release Windows 7 sometime in 2009.

Last week, Microsoft said it would provide full technical support for six-year-old Windows XP through 2009, and limited support through 2014.

India looks to 'foreign' help to save nuke deal

Having left the nuclear deal almost until the eleventh hour, India and its international allies are trying to scrounge for ways to save the nuclear deal — and looking for ways to "telescope" the next few stages.

Left to itself, the next stages of the IAEA ratification and the NSG approval could take months that would go beyond the timeline of both the UPA government and the Bush administration. But the better part of the nuclear world like the UK, US, Russia and France are all openly backing the India-US nuclear deal at this moment.

Diplomatic sources said India would be able to count on many more helping hands, because nobody really wants to see India lose this opportunity.

At the IAEA stage, Indian officials haven't yet been given the green signal from the government to go ahead to the next step. But (if and) when they do, they will initial the finalized draft, which then becomes a finalized text. While this text will be sent to the board of governors by the IAEA secretariat, there is a possibility that NSG leaders like UK, US, Russia and France could circulate the finalized text at the NSG.

The hope is that it may be possible to work on the NSG exemption and the IAEA governors' approval almost simultaneously. This would be unusual, said sources, but not impossible, because most of the IAEA governors are NSG members.

The NSG deliberations will take a minimum of two months before any exemption can be forthcoming. At this stage, it will already be September-October, which would include forcing many Europeans to forego their vacation in August.

If this tight timetable can be followed, US President George Bush could be writing out a presidential determination on the deal by October. The determination is to the US Congress to approve the package — 123 agreement, IAEA safeguards (which should have been approved by the governors by then) and the NSG waiver.

If the Congress receives the determination before it breaks for elections in November, it could take it up during the lame duck session before January 2009. This would involve its own "telescoping" but that would be the US' responsibility, not India's.

All of this is terribly ambitious depending on virtually precision timing and coordinated efforts by many countries apart from India and US to get this deal done. It's a kind of racing the clock that, in many ways, has characterized the deal so far — with its numerous near-death experiences.

The government seems determined, said sources. On Monday, minister of state for external affairs Anand Sharma said in Dubai, "The nuclear deal with the US will help in ending nearly four decades of nuclear apartheid for India during which there were no transfer of technology. In the coming years, India will need a lot of energy, especially nuclear energy, to fuel its growth which has nearly touched 10%," he said.

Time running out on nuclear deal: US

The United States has said it is becoming increasingly unlikely that there will be enough time to push through the Indo-US civil nuclear deal once heralded as the cornerstone of a new strategic relationship.

State Department spokesman Tom Casey said that it is becoming increasingly difficult "to assume that we could be able to get an agreement through the US Congress".

US officials have said that India needs to complete its end of the pact before the US Congress starts its summer break in July because many lawmakers will be busy campaigning for crucial November elections.

29 June 2008

Turbulent times

Analysts believe that given the sharp 47 per cent spike in ATF prices in Q1 FY09, there is little choice for carriers than raise prices. While raising prices when customer demand is dipping might be risky, what are the areas they can look at? Says Kapil Arora, partner, Risk Advisory Services, Ernst & Young, India, "On the operations front, companies can bring down the costs of ticketing, optimise the routes they fly and improve turnaround times for maintenance. On the revenues side, they could increase the value added services chunk by bundling holiday packages, selling food separately or charging for baggage clearance." He believes that companies must invest heavily on technology and maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) services to run a more efficient, leaner organisation. Airlines have responded by resorting to job cuts, route rationalisation, reducing or doing away with travel agent commissions and by hiking prices to offset the ATF hike. While Air India, Jet Airways and SpiceJet have increased fuel surcharge by a minimum of Rs 300, Kingfisher and Air Deccan have announced higher base fares ranging from Rs 500 to Rs 3,000. In addition to hiking prices, companies have cut operations between Tier2 and Tier3 cities and shorter haul routes. What will be the impact of the higher ATF prices on growth and expansion of operations of companies? Hazy future


The increase in ticket prices due to the rise in ATF costs have dealt a double whammy to the sector. Airlines are now having to cope with growth, which is coming in single digits as customers are leaning to cheaper modes of transport while costs are spiralling out of control. For the January-March 2008 period, passenger traffic grew at 10.5 per cent which was less than half of the 25-30 per cent achieved in the last couple of years. If fares continue to go up, growth rates are expected to be in low single digits or slip into the negative. Earlier, with high growth rates, airline companies had ordered for about 480 aircrafts, which was to be inducted between now and 2012. Analysts say the assumptions were based on demand growth, expansion into new sectors and the prevailing ATF cost structure. Companies are expected to either cancel the order or lease it out to other carriers. Analysts believe that the low cost carriers (SpiceJet, Indigo and Go Air) will be the first to be hit as they target the visiting friends and relatives or leisure segment, whereas the professionals or the business segment constitutes the bulk of the customer base for full service carriers.

BATTLING IT OUT

Market Share in CY07

(%)

Jet Airways + Jet Lite

29.8

Indigo

7.6

Air India + Indian Airlines

19

SpiceJet

8.8

Kingfisher + Deccan

29.3

Go Air

4.2

Others

1.3

Source: DGCA

The LCCs, which have about 45 per cent of the market in the country, were expected to garner 60 per cent in the next three years, but with the consolidation (Jet Airways-Sahara, Kingfisher-Deccan and Indian Airlines-Air India) this looks unlikely. Ernst and Young believes that for the sector to survive, there has to be a rationalisation of ATF prices, consolidation offering synergies in operations and distribution, and improvement in airport infrastructure, which will bring down holding times on the ground and in the air. In addition, Arora believes that companies with deep pockets, ability and patience to withstand this bad patch and good quality management will survive. And, who are these players? Analysts say that if crude stabilises at current levels, none of the airlines will make money. However, if crude prices falls below $100 levels, Jet Airways and SpiceJet are the best placed to turn corner. (See: Turbulent future) While Jet Airways has a robust business model with a good mix of domestic and international routes combined with a value-based carrier Jet Lite, SpiceJet is the lowest cost carrier in the industry currently. Even for companies which are running a tight operation it is difficult to fathom how they will fund their operations considering that the sector witnessed losses of $1 billion in the last fiscal and lenders are sitting tight. Without additional funds, the outlook for the sector looks rather bleak. Says Nikhil Vora, managing director, IDFC-SSKI, "Future prospects for the companies look dim. What can be more stark than a sector with a market capitalisation of $3 billion sitting on losses of about $1.5 billion.

Hotel tariffs to melt in slowdown heat

The country's five- and four-star hotels could soon revise downwards their tariffs as the world's second fastest-growing economy heads for a slowdown. According to Crisil Research, the average room rates in cities like Chennai, Hyderabad and Bangalore are likely to fall 5-10 per cent in the next few months. Industry experts said the occupancy rates could fall from 75-80 per cent now to 65-70 per cent soon. Hotels said this is because of companies cutting their travel budgets to deal with the slowdown in business. Some large companies are even known to have hired flats in many cities to control their hotel expenses. "The industry could face rate consolidation (slashing of rates) in the next year. The rates will be slashed when the contracting season begins from October 2008 and the impact of the same would be visible on their revenues in second quarter of 2009," said Siddharth Thaker, the executive director of HVS Hospitality Services, a hotel consultancy.

DROP DOWN

City

Current room
rates (avg)

Projected

Decline

Decline %

Bangalore

14,000

12,700

1,300

9.29

Chennai

7,200

6,800

400

5.55

Hyderabad

7,500

7,100

400

5.33

Figures in Rs Source: Crisil Research

Large players like ITC Hotels and East India Hotels, which runs the Oberoi chain, denied any move to reduce their room rates, though some hotels told Business Standard that such a move was indeed on the cards. A five-star hotel in north Mumbai is mulling a rate cut, while it has added other services like free breakfast and free airport-drop for its clients. The hotel charges around Rs 12,000 per room at present. Another player in the leisure segment has already revised the rates for its properties in Goa and Kerala. This could impact the price of hotel stocks in the market. "If business recorded in the next couple of months is weaker than usual, there could be downgrading of hotel sector stocks," said a Mumbai-based investment analyst. Though hotels are unwilling to talk about it openly, several travel houses, which book hotels for customers, said they had recorded a significant drop in travel bookings. Mumbai-based Sree Raj Travels, for instance, has seen a drop of over 36 per cent in international travel bookings between January and May 2008. This comes at a time when new hotels are coming up across the length and breadth of the country. With 39 hotels under various stages of development, Bangalore will have 3,000 rooms by 2008-09, as compared with the present 2,300, an increase of 30 per cent. Hyderabad will have around 2,200 rooms by 2008-09 as compared with the existing 1,600, an increase of 38 per cent. The most dramatic increase will be in Chennai, where the supply will go up by 30 per cent in a year, while the demand is projected to rise 15 per cent. To make matters worse, the cost of building a hotel could go up by 20 per cent in the current situation, experts said. Construction of the building makes 50 per cent of the cost of any hotel.

Spain beat Germany to lift Euro Cup

Convincing victory

Spain finally ended their 44-year wait for a trophy when Fernando Torres's exquisite first-half goal gave them a deserved 1-0 victory over Germany in a fast and furious Euro 2008 final on Sunday.

Spain, appearing in their first final since 1984 and seeking only their second trophy following their 1964 Euro success on home soil, were worthy winners as their crisp passing, wonderful technique and defensive discipline left Germany flailing.

Torres's goal after 33 minutes was also fit for a final as he showed all the speed, determination and quality of finish that summed up his team's whole campaign

Left to pull out if govt goes to IAEA

A day after Sonia Gandhi asked the Congress to get ready for elections, CPM announced that it would snap support to the UPA government if it took the “harmful” Indo-US nuclear deal to the IAEA. The government can now have the deal either at the cost of elections or by getting the Samajwadi Party’s 39 members to back it in the Lok Sabha.


The government is betting on the second option because no one, neither Congress or its allies, is ready for polls with double-digit inflation expected to shoot up further. SP chief Mulayam Singh Yadav has held that he would decide on the matter when the UNPA meets on July 3.


Mulayam remained noncommittal on the issue on Sunday, when he exhorted his party workers to prepare for Lok Sabha elections. This was interpreted in political parlours as the SP chief ’s resolve to drive a hard bargain with Congress.


On Sunday, the CPM politburo, attended by chief ministers of West Bengal, Kerala and Tripura, said the decision to snap support would be taken in consonance with the other three Left parties. CPM’s partners — CPI, RSP and Forward Bloc — should be making similar pronouncements next week by when the Left, with 59 members in the Lok Sabha, would also know if SP intends to bail out the government.


Significantly, RJD chief and railway minister Lalu Prasad said at a rally in Bharuch, “The UPA government will complete its fiveyear term and the nuclear deal will also go through.’’ This is the first time that the leader of a major constituent of the UPA has asserted in public that the India-US civilian nuclear deal will go through, reflecting the progress made in Congress’s talks with SP.


CPM general secretary Prakash Karat, meanwhile, said going to the IAEA board to get the safeguards agreement approved would be a “flagrant violation” of the understanding reached at the November 2007 meeting of UPA-Left committee on the nuclear deal. “In case the government decides to go ahead with such a harmful agreement, which has no majority support in Parliament, the CPM will withdraw support to the UPA government in concert with other Left parties,” Karat said, reading out prepared statement.


The Left’s idea of what would constitute a “decision” hinges on the elusive last meeting of the UPA-Left committee, as announced on Wednesday. Left leaders insist that this meeting should pen down the committee’s finding that there is no consensus on the matter. “The result should be taken to the highest level after which the PM may clarify whether he is moving with the deal or not,” a Left leader said.


The Left’s stand is now crystal clear and a formal announcement of the committee’s futility would serve no purpose. Also, with the PM slated to attend the G-8 summit in early July and IAEA talks scheduled soon after, the government has no time for niceties.
FINAL STRAW
CPM politburo says the decision to snap support would be taken in consonance with the other three Left parties


RJD chief and railway minister Lalu Prasad says in a rally that the UPA government will complete its five-year term and the nuclear deal will also go through


Telugu Desam Party, UNPA’s second important constituent, has backed the Left stand. So, SP’s lifeline to the government may also mean the death of UNPA